The End of a Cooperative Dream: A Strategic Analysis of the Shifting World Order and the Implications of Transactional US Foreign Policy 

Air Vice Marshal M Abul Bashar (Rtd.)

Abstract

The post-World War II international system, known as the liberal international order (LIO), was founded upon a framework of collective security, open markets, and multilateral institutions. This system can be understood as an iterated game in which states, through repeated interactions, found it to be in their collective and individual long-term interest to cooperate. This cooperative behavior, guided by predictable norms and rules, yielded substantial global stability and prosperity. However, the emergence of the "America First" or "Make America Great Again" doctrine represents a fundamental strategic departure. This shift treats international relations not as an enduring cooperative game, but as a series of zero-sum, transactional encounters where self-interest supersedes long-term alliance fidelity and global norms.

The analysis from current trends demonstrate that the two policies - the tariff war and the approach to Ukraine - are not isolated events, but are central manifestations of this strategic shift. The tariff war, framed as a means to achieve short-term economic gain, was a blunt instrument of geopolitical coercion. It demonstrably harmed the US economy through inflation and weakened its strategic position by compelling allies to reconfigure supply chains and seek alternative economic partnerships. Similarly, while paradoxical in its mixture of rhetorical disdain and continued military support, the policy towards Ukraine has systematically eroded the confidence of key allies. By treating collective security as a transactional commodity, this approach risks the long-term dissolution of the very alliances that have secured American global primacy for decades.

These actions collectively signal a profound unraveling of the cooperative framework that has defined the global order for 80 years. The long-term prognosis is a transition from a stable, US-led unipolar system to a more volatile and fragmented multipolar one, where the principles of cooperation are less certain. The core finding of this report is that the US, by strategically defecting from the cooperative game, is ceding the foundations of its global leadership and accelerating the transition to a new, potentially more dangerous, global architecture. 

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Year

2026

Author(s)

Air Vice Marshal M Abul Bashar (Rtd.)

Journal Name

Osmani Papers

Volume, Issue

1, 1

Pagination

61-77

Article Type

Paper

DOI: 10.67844/fbgdw7

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